Military Action in Iran Part of US Strategy to Contain China's Rise

Following the joint offensive by the United States and Israel in Iran on February 28, oil prices rose sharply on international markets. Justifying the attacks with the claim that Iran posed a threat to their countries, Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu took advantage of the deepening internal instability of the Islamic regime—due to the economic crisis, repression of protesters, and the fragility of the armed forces—to launch a series of attacks and bombings on Iran. The strategy of the United States and Israel is to disarm the Tehran regime through attacks on its political and military leaders, as evidenced by the death of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in the first wave of air operations. According to the US and Israeli governments, the stated objectives of the military action are to protect the State of Israel from potential threats and to prevent the reconstruction of Iran's nuclear program.

Beyond the official justifications, the recent military actions of the United States and Israel in Iran can also be understood in light of implicit motivations, among which the US interest in weakening China's energy security and consolidating its position in the international energy market stands out. In the short term, China has oil reserves that can last for months, but in the long term, the country must reconsider its investments in the Middle East and its global ambitions. In this sense, restricting energy sources such as Iranian oil and gas would be part of Trump's plan to contain China's rise as a superpower.

China's vulnerability to the conflict lies in its shipping and export routes in the Middle East, such as the Strait of Hormuz, and in its energy supply, with the deprivation of essential resources to meet its energy needs. Even so, China's relationship with Iran is characterized by Beijing's efforts to turn the Islamic Republic into a financial asset, thanks to investments made in the country. In this way, China obtains Iranian oil at reduced prices, while Iran secures investments from China in strategic areas such as energy, banking, telecommunications, and infrastructure. Due to the concern raised by Iran among the Gulf countries, China derives strategic benefits from strengthening ties with Arab states which, although regional allies of the United States, are experiencing a process of weakening confidence in American reliability.

In the United States, Donald Trump sees the rise in oil prices as a temporary problem. Washington's intention is to deny China access to markets and resources, with a view to ratifying a trade agreement with Beijing on US terms and ensuring US preponderance in the face of Chinese action in Taiwan. In addition to hampering the flow of Chinese goods through Middle Eastern routes and energy supplies amid the Iranian conflict, Operation Epic Fury aims to contain Chinese influence in the Middle East and weaken relations between major oil producers in the Gulf and China.

Over the past two decades, the United States has undergone a profound transformation in the energy sector, driven primarily by the so-called “shale revolution.” The combination of technological advances in horizontal drilling and hydraulic fracturing has enabled the exploitation of reserves previously considered economically unviable. As a result, the country has become the world's largest producer of oil and natural gas and one of the leading exporters of liquefied natural gas (LNG), consolidating a central position in the international energy system. This growth has significantly altered the global balance of energy supply and expanded Washington's ability to use energy resources as an instrument of economic and strategic influence.

In this context, US foreign policy has sought to reinforce its leadership in the global energy market not only through domestic production expansion, but also through indirect control or influence over strategic hydrocarbon-producing regions. Consolidating US energy dominance involves ensuring stability in the flow of resources, expanding consumer markets for its exports, and reducing dependence on strategic partners or rivals. By acting in regions rich in oil or natural gas and influencing energy supply routes and chains, Washington seeks to consolidate its position as a central player in the governance of the global energy market and as a reliable supplier to allies, especially in a context of growing geopolitical disputes between major powers.

Venezuela, in turn, occupies a unique position in the international energy scenario, possessing the largest proven oil reserves in the world. Historically, the Venezuelan economy has been heavily dependent on hydrocarbon exports, which account for most of the country's foreign revenues. The political and economic crisis that began in the 2010s, coupled with the deterioration of the national oil industry and sanctions imposed by the United States, has drastically reduced Venezuelan production. Even so, control or influence over this sector remains strategically relevant, given the potential for production expansion and the impact that a possible normalization of the industry could have on global energy markets.

In this sense, US actions in Venezuela can be interpreted as part of a broader strategy aimed at reorganizing global energy chains and limiting the influence of competing powers in Latin America. Venezuelan oil has specific characteristics (such as high heavy content) that are particularly suitable for certain US refineries, which reinforces the economic interest in stabilizing and eventually reintegrating this energy flow into the Western market. In addition, the reconfiguration of the Venezuelan oil sector could alter trade routes that currently benefit Caracas' strategic partners, such as China. Thus, US intervention in the country should not be understood solely from a political or ideological perspective, but also as part of a broader geoeconomic logic, in which control or influence over strategic energy resources contributes to sustaining US leadership in the global energy market and reinforcing its position in the international system.