Gold Surpasses Us Treasury Securities in Central Bank Reserves

The financial market operates primarily on speculation about the future. With this in mind, it is noteworthy that in recent years, on a global scale, there has been a significant increase in central bank gold reserves and a drastic reduction in the purchase of dollar-denominated assets and US Treasury securities. According to financial analysts, the focus of this change in international monetary policy lies in structural transformations linked to a breakdown in confidence in the contemporary monetary system, going beyond simply cyclical trends.

According to information from the World Gold Council, central banks in different countries have accumulated more than 1,000 tons of gold in each of the last three years, in line with the fact that 73% of central banks responding to the institution's survey believe in a moderate or significant decline in US dollar reserves over the next five years. Among the topics identified as relevant to reserve management decisions, interest rate levels prevail, but 76% of survey respondents point to geopolitical instability as a key issue.

This dynamic is related to the high appreciation of gold over the last decade, which rose from US$ 1,000 to US$ 4,800 per ounce, representing a 70% appreciation despite relatively high interest rates. This anomalous situation indicates that there is a strong motivation to seek real assets, possibly linked to the decline in the purchasing power of the dollar. Although the largest historical gold reserves are concentrated in advanced economies, virtually all recent purchases have come from developing and emerging economies, notably China, India, Turkey, Brazil, and Poland.

This scenario may also be linked to the fact that gold is classified as a physical asset, so that its acquisition can mitigate the impacts caused by external shocks to the economy, intrinsic to the financial market, such as inflationary conditions and geopolitical crises. Unlike the purchase of government bonds from other countries, for example, the acquisition of gold as an asset for reserve formation does not depend on the external action of an intermediary issuing institution, which reduces the vulnerability of reserves to adverse circumstances.

In addition, the historic level of public debt in the United States is another factor contributing to the worsening situation. In 2026, the US had around US$ 38.5 trillion in debt, representing approximately 120% of its Gross Domestic Product. This situation raises concerns about the long-term fiscal sustainability of the United States, which could increase economic risks on a global scale. Debts of significant magnitude, such as that of the United States, have political and economic implications, such as greater vulnerability to external shocks and increased doubts about the US's ability to sustainably maintain its debt.

According to BRICS Brazil, the purchase of gold is a response to the uncertainties caused by escalating geopolitical tensions—especially since 2022, the year that marked the beginning of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict—and the weakening of the dollar's hegemony, with the measure also being fundamental for protection against possible sanctions. In particular, the Central Bank of Brazil acquired 42.8 tons of gold between September and November 2025, bringing its total holdings at the time to 172.4 tons. This purchase reflects a significant change in stance, as the institution had not purchased the metal since 2021.

However, countries with a history of complex diplomatic and economic relations with the United States, such as Russia and China in particular, point to possible risks of restrictions being imposed on US securities already acquired. Although there have been no formal initiatives promoted by the US in this regard so far, restriction strategies such as freezing securities and applying economic sanctions are real possibilities in contexts of geopolitical tension, which increases the appeal for alternative reserves.

In this sense, despite the potential escalation of external political and economic tensions and the risks involved in the process of replacing reserves, the sentiment among central banks is largely positive, reflecting the reliability associated with gold in times of geopolitical and macroeconomic crisis.