Conflict between the United States, Israel and Iran Threatens to Trigger a Crisis in the Global Oil and Gas Market

Attacks on energy facilities in the Persian Gulf have turned the region into a focal point of concern regarding the security of energy infrastructure and commercial maritime transport. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the current energy crisis caused by the conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran is equivalent in magnitude to the combined impact of the first and second oil shocks and the effects of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In this context, the Strait of Hormuz—responsible for transporting approximately 21% of the world’s oil—has become a central point of tension in international geopolitics following the Iranian government’s decision to partially block the passage of ships in the region. Regional instability, stemming from armed tensions, has led to a sharp reaction in oil markets, with the Dubai crude oil benchmark reaching a record price of US$166.80 per barrel on March 19 of this year.

Despite international efforts to ease economic pressures, such as increased oil production by the United States, Brazil, and Guyana, a potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz would imply a drastic reduction in the capacity to transport these resources. The possibility of redirecting approximately 6 to 8 million barrels per day through Saudi and Emirati pipelines would not be sufficient to offset the losses, given that the strait handles between 20 and 21 million barrels per day. Furthermore, the Iranian bombing of the Ras Laffan complex—the main hub for liquefied natural gas (LNG) production in Qatar—on March 18 of this year indicates an expansion of the effects of the pressures exerted by the United States and Israel on Iran.

Given the uncertainty surrounding the continuation of the conflict in the Middle East, direct impacts of disruptions in the energy market on national economies and maritime transport networks are already observable, with adverse effects extending to other sectors, such as semiconductors.

In this context, the role of the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC), headquartered in Taipei, Taiwan, stands out. The company is responsible for approximately 90% of the global production of advanced semiconductors, which are essential components for the manufacture of mobile phones, military equipment, and artificial intelligence technologies. Despite this technological leadership, Taiwan faces significant energy vulnerability. The island imports about 97% of its primary energy, mostly from the Middle East. Therefore, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would have direct impacts on Taipei and on the entire global technological production chain dependent on semiconductors.

In particular, helium gas—a byproduct of liquefied natural gas (LNG) processing—is crucial for chip production. Responsible for cooling equipment in the manufacturing process, this input is indispensable for the continuity of operations in the sector. Although some companies maintain helium reserves, concerns remain regarding their sufficiency in the event of a potential escalation of the conflict in the Middle East. Moreover, the long-term storage of these reserves is limited. According to Richard Brook, former executive at Air Liquide, chip manufacturers “can only store enough for about a month and a half; otherwise, [the gas] starts to warm up.”

Furthermore, regarding future projections for the international energy market in light of the current geopolitical crisis, a significant rise in fuel prices and increased market volatility stand out. These phenomena occur mainly due to the contraction of the global oil supply resulting from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which raises transportation costs and puts upward pressure on prices, given the need to seek alternative routes that are generally longer or less efficient. In this context, increased geopolitical risk leads market agents to anticipate the possibility of abrupt disruptions in energy supply, which tends to contribute to rising prices even before an actual decline in production occurs.

Additionally, the effects of the potential energy crisis in question may manifest in different ways within the international system, particularly affecting countries highly dependent on energy imports. From this perspective, emerging countries or those with developing economic structures tend to be the most affected by such international pressures, as restricted access to these inputs directly impacts the cost of sectors such as food production, industry, and transportation. In particular, the rising cost of natural gas affects large-scale fertilizer production, which has tangible effects on global agricultural output and, indirectly, on global food security.

Moreover, in terms of long-term consequences, one of the central developments is the increasing fragmentation of the global energy market, with a greater consolidation of regional economic blocs. In this sense, Western states tend to strengthen preexisting and generally more stable energy alliances, while countries such as China and India may prioritize the acquisition of oil at discounted prices from suppliers in sanctioned countries or those outside the Western sphere. At the same time, this crisis context enables a potential global energy transition, as it highlights the need to diversify the energy matrix and develop renewable energy sources in order to reduce vulnerabilities. Simultaneously, it demonstrates how energy scarcity and high costs can intensify dependence on available fossil fuels.

In light of this scenario, it becomes evident that the unfolding of the conflict points to broader and more enduring transformations in the organization of the international energy system. According to Nikolay Patrushev, presidential advisor to the Russian Federation, the current crisis can be characterized as “a catalyst for a reorganization of the global energy market and the collapse of maritime logistics,” being responsible for the restructuring of trade routes and the redefinition of the very dynamics of the global economy. Thus, it is observed that the international context presented consolidates the possibility of a new scenario in which elements such as energy supply, geopolitical conflicts, and global logistics infrastructure become more deeply interdependent.